Transportation Game Changer

[Kepesk]

...Thanks? Didn't think not would become such a debate, haha.

[Tightapex]

"Frohnmayer acknowledges that one piece of the formula has not yet been revealed: “We’ll see how large a market there is.”

And this would be?

[Kepesk]

Just what he said. The size of the market.

[Rickb]

The enclosed, affordable, three wheeler commuter market (I.C.E. or Electric) seems to have a following and huge potential, but none of the new startups have been able to get to the production phase of R&D to prove market acceptance.  The positive wide range demographic reaction of FUV test drivers and reservationists over the past couple years is a good indication the market exists.    The question is will the market demand the minimum number of units Arcimoto needs to produce yearly to be profitable?  

“We will see how large a market there is.”  

The market acceptance is about to be tested over the next 2 years as reservationist FUVs begin to roll out the AMP in greater numbers. I predict Arcimoto will prove to be a wildly successful venture.

[paravil]

Jimball, you remind me of a recent discussion I had with my granddaughter over a coffee, sitting outside in a café in the evening sunshine. T´was about religion (I was at her christening as her godfather). She is of an age when disbelief is common. Then, out of the blue, an oriental gentleman at the next table butted in and started to abuse my granddaughter (or maybe me). His language was much like yours. The result was that my granddaughter (who is a newly qualifiied barrister) is now a re-converted militant Christrian.

[Kepesk]

Jimball, you remind me of a recent discussion I had with my granddaughter over a coffee, sitting outside in a café in the evening sunshine. T´was about religion (I was at her christening as her godfather). She is of an age when disbelief is common. Then, out of the blue, an oriental gentleman at the next table butted in and started to abuse my granddaughter (or maybe me). His language was much like yours. The result was that my granddaughter (who is a newly qualifiied barrister) is now a re-converted militant Christrian.

Okay, wow, guys, could you maybe take this somewhere else?  I just wanted to have a nice discussion about a fun magazine article here.

[Rickb]

Patrick, That became way to personal to ignore even for this old geezer three wheeler fan. Please let it go! It’s starting to overshadow the three wheelin fun factor.

[shome]

At the end of the article Frohnmayer comments "We''ll see how large a market there is." I am guessing that the Can Am Spyder sales model is most applicable. I have read that there were 2500 Spyder units sold at its' introduction in 2008. Guesses are that there are about 10K Spyders sold a year. That is my best guess on the market size for the FUV. Increasing the pool of endorsed riders needs to be a marketing goal.

[Rickb]

At the end of the article Frohnmayer comments "We''ll see how large a market there is."  I am guessing that the Can Am Spyder sales model is most applicable.  I have read that there were 2500 Spyder units sold at its' introduction in 2008.  Guesses are that there are about 10K Spyders sold a year.  That is my best guess on the market size for the FUV.   Increasing the pool of endorsed riders needs to be a marketing goal.

Arcimoto’s marketing goal should be to lead in a national effort to redefine the State’s hodgepodge of autocycle definitions to a universal autocycle definition that waives the MC and helmet requirements in all 50 States.  The only thing the FUV and Spyder have in common are 3 wheels and handlebar steering.  The Spyder’s appeal is limited to the motorcycle riding demographic.  The FUV autocycle, appeals to a wide range of demographics, young/old, most unaware that they are even ‘driving’ a motorcycle.

The FUVs potential aging biker demographic, ready to retire their bikes, may find the more stable, roll caged, open/enclosed, safety equipped FUV  autocycle the solution to keep on riding. 

I wouldn’t consider buying/riding on a Can Am Spyder, but have had a SRK turned FUV reservation for a long time.

[Sniffy]

The only thing the FUV and Spyder have in common are 3 wheels and handlebar steering.  

I disagree, on this point.  The Spyder, with it's tadpole configuration, is likely to be a very similar riding experience to the Arcimoto.  In my opinion, that's a good thing!

On your other points, I am in agreement.  The Arcimoto will have a much greater market appeal than the Spyder, for reasons you have stated.  Still though, I will be very pleasantly surprised if they exceed 100K units annually.