"Welcome to the Future" Event at the AMP: Thur 9/19/19

[ricschug]

Hope we hear some more detailed production estimates soon. One a day now and four a day by end of year is not very promising. Ten or twenty a day would be more like it. Shipments == $$$! Hopefully AMP will soon move to two or three shifts a day if they can find enough qualified workers. I suspect that might be a problem.

[Rickb]

The 1 unit/day ($100K per week in sales) scaling to four/day ( $400K per week in sales) is the production estimate for 2019, if my math is correct. It should help to keep the lights on. I doubt they will run multiple shifts. Start slow, get it right, and manage a quality control scaled production plan over time to the anticipated max of 200 units/week. Seems like a well thought out plan. Waiting when you know production has started is much easier than waiting and uncertain when or if production will ever start. The A Team deserves to take a bow for their team effort accomplishments.

[harriska2]

Per the video at 34:38 they are making 1 per day until end of next month (October). Then 2 per day. 5 per day by 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-voq8sxJ..._N1P2I2xWE

By my calculation they are redoing the 4 or so Signature series that have 2 day to 2 week paint jobs first. Then the Hulu and rentals. I suspect they will get done with those around Oct 4th. Then make about the first 20 Evergreens by Nov 1st. #21-60 by Dec 1st. Maybe #61-100 by the middle/end of December before Xmas break. Assuming all goes well.

[ricschug]

I agree with Rickb that AM has made great accomplishments and deserves lots of credit for an awesome achievement and also that their plans always seem to be well thought out. But if they want to keep their 4000+ orders and to really become successful they need to stop the slow drip, drip of shipments and get ramped up very quickly. I know if I had 4000+ orders I would be working 24x7 to fill them. Hopefully AMP has a sense of urgency to make shipments and we will all be pleasantly surprised over time.

[Rickb]

I agree with ricschug in that there is some urgency to ramp production and deliver Evergreens as quickly as possible. Also, I’m certain Arcimoto agrees with that sense of urgency during their cash burn period of production start and is working their butts off to scale production and deliver as many FUVs as they can in the shortest time possible. We are going to see a 100 smiling faces in the very near future.

[Rickb]

I just heard Mark F. say that Arcimoto’s anticipated production ramp is 200 vehicles per week over the next 12-18 months. He did not follow that up with a FLS, so it must be true. Respectable timeline to maximum production at the Eugene AMP.

[Odi]

But if they want to keep their 4000+ orders and to really become successful they need to stop the slow drip, drip of shipments and get ramped up very quickly.

The problem is those 4000 preorders are for the 12k price point. At 20k, I was around 2000 but ended up as 55/100 after waiting a month to even be able to order one. What I imagine they will do is produce 100 first. Then they will get an inventory loan to order materials in bulk and fill rental agreements. And they will go through the 4000 again and see who wants one at the lower price point (but nowhere close to 12k yet)

Also, starting off slow lets them mitigate the risk of a recall issue that might pop up in real world scenarios as opposed to lab testing

[Rickb]

I’m curious what the pencil on paper production ramp NUMBER actually needs to be to offer the $12K base? Also, how the heck do they scale production from 4 units/day at the end of 2019 to the max 200 units/week over 12-18 months without Robot assemblers?

[harriska2]

I was around 3500 when I put down $100 reservation in February and got 79/100 when I put down my deposit at the end of March. I suspect you can still get an Evergreen even today. The $20k price tag is pretty steep for our 3 state area. To get 200 per week they would need to hire a butt load more people, especially for sub assemblies and applying vinyl. They should look at different abs colors to avoid vinyl. Think! had a nice blue.

[Rickb]

I was told that the 100 Evergreens were ‘SOLD OUT’. I thought I read sometime back they were taking orders for the second run of Evergreens. Perhaps the second round will include a more affordable variation based on Mark’s recent statement:

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To reach the 200 units per week target they will need to hire robots. Regarding color, my opinion is they should scrap vinyl and offer the five most popular paint colors. The body assembly parts could be painted by who ever is manufacturing those parts. A page out of Tesla’s manufacturing playbook on limited color choices and would make for a more efficient cost savings manufacturing process.