(12-21-2019, 10:13 AM)SparkE Wrote: I was specifically referring to the EV marketplace, where the FUV is just too late to "take over" anything.
There's one thing you're forgetting: carpool lane access
In the SF Bay Area, the proliferation of EVs is due to the clean air vehicle HOV access (wanting to save time and not because of wanting an EV). Around 2005-2007, it was the Prius (and other hybrids) that enjoyed the benefit. I remember in 2008 that a used Prius hybrid with sticker was selling for more than a brand new Prius hybrid (because the maximum number of yellow stickers had been given out). Until 2016, EVs (along with natural gas and fuel cell vehicles) were issued white stickers with no maximum cap but plug in hybrids were issued green stickers with a cap. The green sticker cap was raised several times and I saw a lot more green stickers on the road, because hybrids had no range anxiety (and as you mentioned, everyone was waiting for a 200+ mile range EV).
In 2017, with overcrowded carpool lanes, the white/green sticker expiration of 2019 was not extended and new red stickers were issued that expire in 2022. This was when I decided to look up an alternative, because I wasn't going to support the laws the car manufacturers lobbied for (new EVs get carpool access for the first 3 years of its life while early adopters get kicked out). This was also when I put my $100 deposit in Arcimoto. So in 2019, purple stickers were issued that expire in 2023, and in 2020, orange stickers will be issued that expire in 2024. My co-worker who bought a 2015 LEAF the week after I did (because I talked about the great deal I got for carpool access) gave in, traded it in, and leased a 2018 LEAF to stay in the carpool lane. I sold my LEAF in late 2018 and started taking public transit to not support the car manufacturer lobbyists. Then in 2019, I found out my work is moving from 1 block away from public transit to 1.5 miles away, so I put my $5000 deposit on the Evergreen.
The 3 year rolling period wasn't enough to reduce congestion in the carpool lanes as people flocked to leasing new EVs, so in 2020-2022, express lanes are replacing a lot of carpool lanes in the SF Bay Area. Clean air vehicles with valid sticker will only be half price. Carpools with 2 people will only be half price. Clean air vehicles with valid sticker and 2 people aboard is also only half price. Carpools with 3+,
motorcycles, and buses will remain free. If the FUV and Solo don't take over, then I will happily drive in the carpool lane for the next decade or more. If the FUV and Solo take over, I expect autocycles to be kicked out of the express lanes at some point, and I will sell my Arcimoto stock to buy a Tesla with auto pilot or to pay for the express lane tolls.